CESM2-Large Ensemble Reproduction of Kay et al. 2015#


This Jupyter Notebook demonstrates how one might use the NCAR Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) data hosted on AWS S3. The notebook shows how to reproduce figure 2 from the Kay et al. (2015) paper describing the CESM LENS dataset (doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1), with the LENS2 dataset.

There was a previous notebook which explored this use case, put together by Joe Hamman and Anderson Banihirwe, accessible on the Pangeo Gallery using this link. The specific figure we are replicating is shown below.


With the CESM2-LE dataset, we have 100 members which span from 1850 to 2100; whereas the original LENS dataset’s 40 member ensemble include data from 1920 to 2100. In this notebook, we include the ensemble spread from 1850 to 2100, comparing observations from the HADCRUT4 dataset when available. We also explore a more interactive version of this figure!


%matplotlib inline
import warnings

# Silence dask.distributed logs
import logging

logger = logging.getLogger("distributed.utils_perf")

import holoviews as hv
import hvplot.pandas
import hvplot.xarray
import intake
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import xarray as xr
from distributed import Client
from ncar_jobqueue import NCARCluster